Weekly Market Analysis — 28-27 Farvardin 1405 (14-16 April 2026)
Author: Farhad Moghadam Salimi | Publication date: 17 April 1405
Executive Summary
This week was a major turning point for global risk assets. The S&P 500 crossed the historic 7,000 mark for the first time, Bitcoin surged above $74,000 as whales piled in, and Turkey’s BIST 100 hit a two-month high near 14,300. Key drivers: optimism over US-Iran talks and strong institutional inflows into crypto ETFs.
Bitcoin and Crypto Market
Bitcoin is trading at approximately $74,576 on April 16, hitting a four-week high and consolidating above the psychological level of $73,000.
Key technical levels
- Support: $73,000 (psychological) / $71,500 (recent swing low)
- Resistance: $75,000 (instant) / $80,000-80,600 (important band)
- 200-day moving average: $87,519 — Bitcoin is undervalued in the long term and has upside potential
Institutional activity
The institutional narrative continues to strengthen. The first quarter of 2026 saw $18.7 billion in net inflows into crypto ETPs globally, with Bitcoin ETFs alone attracting $12.4 billion . BlackRock bought $612 million worth of Bitcoin over five trading sessions in the week of April 10-11. This level of institutional accumulation, coupled with whale buying patterns, suggests a possible move to $75,000-80,000 before the summer.
My vision
The combination of institutional inflows, whale accumulation, and improving macroeconomic conditions has created a bullish structure. However, the 200-day moving average at $87,519 remains a significant hurdle. I expect a gradual move towards $78,000-80,000 by the end of April, with any correction to $71,500-72,000 being a buying opportunity.
US stock market
The S&P 500 hit a historic high this week, closing at 7,033 on April 16 — breaking through 7,000 for the first time in history. The Nasdaq ended an 11-day record high of 24,016.
Main drivers
- Geopolitics: Growing optimism about US-Iran talks after ceasefire agreement
- Banking Sector Strength: First Quarter Reporting Season with Robust Financial Results
- Oil price decline: Oil prices fall as peace expectations ease inflation concerns
Türkiye: BIST 100 and Lira
The BIST 100 index is testing above 14,300 — the highest level in two months.
The Turkish lira continues its structural decline, reaching around 44.5 lira to the dollar . The Central Bank of Turkey continues to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Investment implications for Türkiye
- Turkish stocks remain attractive in lira but carry significant currency risk for foreign investors
- Real estate-backed assets (like RWA tokens) offer a natural hedge against inflation
- Keep an eye on the Turkish Central Bank’s interest rate decisions in the coming weeks.
Key events next week
- Earnings reports from major US tech companies
- Federal Reserve Statements and Interest Rate Signals
- Developments in US-Iran negotiations
- Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $73,000 level and challenge the $75,000 level
Conclusion
We are in a risk-on environment driven by easing geopolitical tensions and strong institutional currents. Bitcoin’s structure is constructive, US stocks are making history, and Turkish markets are riding the global wave. The main risk is a sudden reversal in diplomacy or unexpected contractionary signals from central banks.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
